86% — Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026
Leader: 4.95% or above at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 4 contracts · $166 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 72% chance that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.79% by July 6, 2026—two days from now. The probability reflects expectations about near-term bond market movement driven by interest rate expectations and inflation data. With limited time to resolution, the outcome depends primarily on economic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk sentiment over the next 48 hours. The spread between contract prices (55¢ for 4.79% versus 19¢ for 5%+) suggests markets view yields staying in a relatively narrow band, with meaningful probability concentrated in the 4.79% to 4.99% range rather than extreme moves in either direction. Very little trading volume indicates low participation, which may limit confidence in these estimates.

Key factors:
- The 30Y yield closed near 4.79% on July 3-4, placing it at the threshold of the leading contract outcome
- Upcoming employment or inflation data between now and July 6 could shift Treasury yields by 10-20 basis points in either direction
- Federal Reserve speakers or economic commentary over the next 48 hours represents the primary catalyst for repricing long-duration bonds
- Contract pricing shows declining probability at higher yield thresholds (40¢ at 4.94%, 19¢ at 5.00%), indicating tail-risk hedging rather than conviction in major moves
- Near-zero 24-hour trading volume on all five contracts suggests limited market depth and potentially stale pricing

Contracts:
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 10, 2026?: 4.95% or above — 86¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 5%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 10, 2026?: 5% or above — 73¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Jul 10, 2026?: 5.1% or above — 29¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 92%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Jul 10, 2026?: 5.15% or above — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-10T07:20:51.489Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust30a
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%2030Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.94%25%20on%20Jul%206%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev