84% — Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader: 5.05% or above at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 4 contracts · $456 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:34:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects near-certain conviction that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.99% on July 13, 2026. The 97% probability indicates traders expect yields to remain above this threshold through tomorrow, with contracts pricing progressively lower odds as yield targets rise (96% for 4.99%, 68% for 5.04%, 16% for 5.09%). Treasury yields are sensitive to inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and global rate expectations. The immediate resolution occurs at market close on July 13, making this a very short-duration bet with minimal time for new information to arrive. Current positioning suggests minimal tail risk of a sudden yield collapse below 4.99%, though geopolitical shocks, unexpected economic data, or Fed communications could theoretically shift longer-term rate expectations. The market structure shows declining conviction at higher yield thresholds, indicating genuine uncertainty about whether yields will substantially exceed 5% even as consensus leans strongly toward the base case.

Key factors:
- 30Y Treasury yields closed July 12 near or above 4.99%, making tomorrow's maintenance of this level the base expectation with only overnight gaps creating downside risk
- Federal Reserve policy stance and inflation expectations anchor long-term yield levels; any unexpected economic data or Fed communications between now and market close could move yields materially
- The 24-hour volume concentration ($221 on the 5.09% contract versus $2 on the 4.99% contract) suggests active disagreement on upper-bound outcomes but strong consensus on the sub-5% base case
- Geopolitical events, credit market stress, or flight-to-quality flows could rapidly drive yields downward, though the 97% price implies such scenarios carry minimal market-assigned probability
- Resolution occurs within 24 hours with no major scheduled economic releases expected, limiting new catalysts that could alter the current yield trajectory

Contracts:
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Jul 13, 2026?: 5.05% or above — 84¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 21%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Jul 13, 2026?: 5.1% or above — 79¢ Kalshi $356 (weight 78%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Jul 13, 2026?: 5.2% or above — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Jul 13, 2026?: 5.15% or above — 3¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust30ad
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%2030Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.99%25%20on%20Jul%2013%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev