95% — Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Jul 31, 2026 Leader: 4.8% or above at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 9 contracts · $241 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 20:53:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 95% probability that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.89% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks away. The tight timeframe means the yield needs only modest movement from current levels to resolve affirmatively. The leading contract shows similar confidence (95%) for a 4.79% threshold, while progressively lower probabilities appear at higher yield levels (31% at 5.04%, 18% at 5.14%), indicating traders expect yields to remain in a narrow band rather than spike significantly. The main drivers are Fed policy expectations, inflation data releases, and broader Treasury market demand through month-end. The July employment report (expected mid-month) and any Fed communications could shift sentiment, but the high probability reflects limited volatility expected in the remaining trading days before expiration. Key factors: - The 30Y Treasury yield would need to fall below 4.89% to resolve negatively—a move of roughly 15-20 basis points downward from levels typically implied by the contract pricing structure - Only three weeks remain until July 31 settlement, limiting time for large yield moves driven by macroeconomic shocks - Kalshi trading volume is moderate ($40 on the specific 4.89% contract, $366 across higher thresholds), suggesting specialized rather than retail-driven positioning - The probability ladder shows geometric decay above 4.89% (95% → 84% → 31% → 18%), indicating markets assign declining odds to higher yield outcomes but don't price them as impossible - Mid-July employment and inflation data releases represent the primary scheduled events that could materially shift 30-year yield expectations before expiration Contracts: - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.8% or above — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.85% or above — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.9% or above — 84¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 17%) - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.95% or above — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 31, 2026?: 5% or above — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Jul 31, 2026?: 5.05% or above — 51¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 18%) - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Jul 31, 2026?: 5.1% or above — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 5.15% or above — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.858Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust30am Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%2030Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.89%25%20on%20Jul%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev