20% — Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%
Leader: Above 5.30% at 20% · Kalshi 20% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:31:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a two-in-three chance that the 30-year US Treasury yield will close June above 4.95%. This reflects uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and inflation dynamics over the coming weeks. The yield level matters because it signals market expectations for long-term borrowing costs, which affects mortgage rates, bond valuations, and investment decisions. Upward pressure would come from hotter-than-expected inflation data or Fed communication suggesting sustained higher rates; downward pressure would come from economic weakness or shifting Fed expectations toward rate cuts. The key catalyst will be inflation readings and any Fed communications before month-end, particularly June's CPI release and any policy guidance.

Key factors:
- Current 30Y Treasury yield relative to 4.95% strike—the yield's starting position on June 3 determines how much movement is needed in either direction
- Market expectations for the June CPI release and PCE deflator, scheduled mid-to-late June, which heavily influence Treasury pricing
- Fed communication or policy signals between now and June 30, including any FOMC decisions or chairman statements regarding rate hold or cut timing
- Spread between the 15-cent (5.30%) and 67-cent (4.95%) contracts suggests markets see higher probabilities of yields staying below 5.30% but meaningful uncertainty within the 4.95–5.30% range
- 24-hour trading volume concentrated in the 5.00% contract ($332) relative to others, indicating active price discovery around the 5.00% level as a key pivot point

Contracts:
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.30%?: Above 5.30% — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%?: Above 4.95% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.971Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust30m
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%2030Y%20US%20Treasury%20Yield%20for%20month-end%20be%20above%204.95%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev