4% — Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.25%
Leader: Above 4.30% at 4% · Kalshi 4% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:13:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing a strong 89% likelihood that the 5-year US Treasury yield will exceed 4.25% by June 30, 2026. This reflects current economic conditions and expectations about Federal Reserve policy, inflation, and credit demand through month-end. The high probability suggests traders believe yields have momentum upward or are already elevated relative to this threshold. Key drivers include incoming inflation data, Fed communications about interest rate policy, and economic growth signals. The contract structure shows meaningful disagreement at higher thresholds—only 50% odds above 4.30%—indicating uncertainty about whether yields will push significantly higher. Any major economic data miss or dovish Fed pivot could reduce yields below the 4.25% level, while persistent inflation or hawkish commentary could push yields higher. The narrow 28-day window limits the timeframe for resolution, focusing attention on near-term economic indicators and policy signals.

Key factors:
- Current 5-year yield level relative to 4.25% and recent trading range; the 89% probability implies yields are either already above or very close to this threshold
- Probability cliff between 4.25% (89%) and 4.30% (50%) suggests the market sees material resistance above 4.30%, with significant disagreement on further upside
- June inflation data release and any remaining Fed communications this month would be primary catalysts affecting near-term yield direction
- Economic growth expectations and credit conditions; weaker-than-expected data could trigger a yield decline below 4.25% despite current high probability
- Liquidity and positioning in Treasury markets; thin volume on higher-threshold contracts ($2-7M in 24h) suggests modest real-money conviction at present levels

Contracts:
- Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.30%?: Above 4.30% — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.35%?: Above 4.35% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.108Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust5
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%205Y%20US%20Treasury%20Yield%20before%20month-end%20be%20above%204.25%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev