96% — Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026
Leader: 4.1% or above at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-23 23:27:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses whether the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.04% on July 17, 2026—tomorrow. The 97% probability reflects near-certainty that yields will remain above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven primarily by Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation dynamics; a significant downward move would require either unexpected economic weakness, a shift toward rate cuts, or deflationary signals. The immediate resolution tomorrow means the outcome depends almost entirely on overnight market movements and any pre-market data releases. With 24-hour trading volume at zero and contracts widely clustered above 94 cents, traders show strong consensus that the 4.04% level will hold, though the contract ladder reveals diminishing conviction at higher yield thresholds—96 cents for 4.05% versus 56 cents for 4.25%.

Key factors:
- Current 5Y yield is priced above 4.04% with only one trading day remaining before resolution, leaving minimal time for large directional shifts
- Volume is zero across all contracts in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential illiquidity if positions need to be adjusted
- The contract price ladder shows declining probability for progressively higher yields (97% for 4.05%, 56% for 4.25%), indicating asymmetric risk above current levels
- No scheduled major economic data releases or Fed communications are typically expected on the final trading day before resolution
- The gap between the leader (97%) and runner-up (96%) is one percentage point, reflecting minimal market disagreement on the core outcome

Contracts:
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.1% or above — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.15% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.2% or above — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.25% or above — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.3% or above — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.35% or above — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-17T07:20:52.187Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust5a
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%205Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.04%25%20on%20Jul%2017%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev