92% — Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader: 4.15% or above at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 7 contracts · $927 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 07:09:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing an 88% chance that the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield closes at 4.25% or higher on July 13, 2026. This reflects expectations about inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and near-term bond market dynamics. The high probability suggests traders believe yields will remain elevated above that threshold. Key drivers include recent inflation reports, Fed communications about interest rate policy, and broader economic growth expectations. The most immediate catalyst would be any new economic data released between now and market close on July 13. The contract structure shows progressively lower probabilities for higher yield levels—only 17% chance of exceeding 4.34%—indicating consensus that yields will stay in a relatively narrow range rather than spike significantly higher.

Key factors:
- Current 5Y yield level relative to 4.24% threshold and recent intraday trading range
- Inflation expectations and any CPI or PCE data scheduled for release before market close on July 13
- Federal Reserve communications, rate guidance, or policy signals affecting near-term rate expectations
- Flight-to-safety demand versus risk appetite in equity markets, which typically inverse yields
- Technical support/resistance levels and month-end bond portfolio positioning patterns

Contracts:
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.15% or above — 92¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 6%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.2% or above — 92¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 5%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.25% or above — 90¢ Kalshi $64 (weight 7%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.3% or above — 33¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 12%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.35% or above — 16¢ Kalshi $646 (weight 70%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.4% or above — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.45% or above — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust5ad
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%205Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.24%25%20on%20Jul%2013%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev