94% — Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader: 4.15% or above at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 15 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 01:05:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects a 97% probability that the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will close at or above 4.04% on July 31, 2026, based on trading in nine related contracts. Markets are pricing in a very high likelihood of yields staying in a relatively narrow band above 4.04% through month-end. The primary drivers are Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data releases scheduled over the next three weeks. Key uncertainty centers on whether the Fed maintains its current rate stance and how incoming economic data—particularly the July jobs report and consumer inflation figures—influences yield movements. The contract structure shows declining confidence in yields reaching substantially higher levels (4.14%, 4.29%, or above), suggesting traders see limited upside pressure but significant confidence in the sub-4.04% scenario being unlikely. Resolution comes with the Treasury yield fixings on July 31, 2026.

Key factors:
- Current 5-year yield is approximately 4.04%, making this near-the-money; a 97% probability suggests minimal margin above current levels is required
- July employment report (early August release) and Consumer Price Index data will provide inflation signals that directly influence Treasury yields during the pricing period
- Federal Reserve communications and any policy shift signals between now and July 31 could move yields; no major rate decision is scheduled in this window
- Contracts show 78% probability of yields exceeding 4.14%, indicating markets assign only 19% cumulative probability to the 4.04-4.14% range
- Volume concentration in the 4.04-4.09% contracts versus lower volumes above 4.14% suggests conviction about the upper bound of likely outcomes

Contracts:
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.15% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.05% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.1% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.2% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.25% or above — 93¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.3% or above — 84¢ Kalshi $317 (weight 17%)
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.35% or above — 60¢ Kalshi $322 (weight 17%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-30T01:20:51.678Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust5am
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%205Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.04%25%20on%20Jul%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev