7% — Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%
Leader: Above 4.20% at 7% · Kalshi 7% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:12:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 6% probability that the five-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.20% at the end of June 2026. The low odds suggest traders expect yields to remain below that threshold, which typically occurs when bond markets price in lower growth expectations or falling inflation. The 5Y yield responds to Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data, and employment reports. Key drivers include the Fed's interest rate path and whether economic data over the next two weeks supports higher or lower rates. The June employment report (expected early July) and any Fed communications would be the main catalysts that could shift these probabilities significantly. Current market pricing reflects relatively stable expectations around Treasury yields staying contained in the near term.

Key factors:
- 5Y Treasury yield last traded below 4.20% threshold; current market levels and recent trading range are consistent with contract odds
- Federal Reserve policy stance and forward guidance on rate cuts or holds significantly influences 5Y yield expectations
- Inflation data and PCE readings released before month-end could shift expectations for the 5Y curve
- Employment and economic growth data affecting recession probabilities directly impacts Treasury demand and yield levels
- Volume and open interest on related contracts remain minimal ($0 24h volume), suggesting limited recent market activity and potential for wider bid-ask spreads

Contracts:
- Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%?: Above 4.25% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:50.857Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust5m
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%205Y%20US%20Treasury%20Yield%20for%20month-end%20be%20above%204.20%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev