84% — Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader: 4.4% or above at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 3 contracts · $207 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:33:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 7Y Treasury yield is priced to stay above 4.24% through July 13, 2026, with traders assigning 97% probability to this outcome. This reflects expectations about near-term interest rate levels, which depend primarily on Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data. The yield could move lower if incoming economic data weakens demand for credit or if Fed officials signal dovish pivot; it could move higher if inflation remains sticky or growth surprises to the upside. The main catalyst for resolution is the CPI release scheduled for mid-July, which typically influences rate expectations. Traders show high confidence in the 4.24% floor but much lower conviction above 4.34%, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about how far yields might climb. Volume concentration in the tightest contracts indicates active two-way pricing on the exact level rather than a consensus certainty.

Key factors:
- The 97% probability on the 4.25%+ contract is supported by $489 in 24-hour volume, indicating genuine market participation rather than thin liquidity.
- Probability drops sharply to 60% at 4.39% and near zero at 4.44%, showing traders expect yields in a narrow band rather than a decisive break higher.
- The CPI data release mid-July will be the primary driver of movement in 7-year Treasury yields in the two days before settlement.
- Current 7Y yield level relative to Fed funds expectations and the term premium will determine whether a 4.24% floor holds or breaks.
- The gap between 97% confidence at 4.25% and 90% at 4.29% suggests only modest expected movement in a two-day window.

Contracts:
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.4% or above — 84¢ Kalshi $185 (weight 89%)
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.5% or above — 8¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 11%)
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.6% or above — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust7ad
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%207Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.24%25%20on%20Jul%2013%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev