50% — Will US test scores in Math decline
Leader: No significant difference at 50% · Kalshi 50% · 3 contracts · $79 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:15:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 57% probability indicates that markets view a decline in US Math test scores as more likely than not over the specified timeframe. This assessment reflects ongoing concerns about educational outcomes, potential curriculum changes, and shifts in student preparation methods. The probability level suggests genuine uncertainty rather than consensus—nearly half the probability mass sits on no decline occurring. Key drivers include recent standardized test data trends, the implementation of new educational policies, and macroeconomic factors affecting school resources. Resolution will depend on official test score releases from organizations like NAEP or state education departments, which typically occur on announced schedules throughout 2026. The specific threshold and comparison period will determine whether this resolves affirmatively.

Key factors:
- Historical trend direction: Recent NAEP and state standardized test results show whether Math scores have been declining, stable, or improving in the years leading to 2026
- Policy and curriculum changes: Implementation of new educational standards, teaching methodologies, or assessment structures that could measurably affect performance
- School resource allocation: Funding levels, teacher availability, and investment in STEM programs that directly influence instructional quality
- Student demographics and test participation: Changes in the population taking tests and baseline preparation levels that affect aggregate score comparisons
- Official data release dates: When authoritative test results become available to settle the prediction, typically through education department publications or NAEP reporting cycles

Contracts:
- Will US test scores in Math decline?: No significant difference — 50¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 14%)
- Will US test scores in Math decline?: Significant decrease — 40¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 86%)
- Will US test scores in Math decline?: Significant increase — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.543Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ustestsmath
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20test%20scores%20in%20Math%20decline
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev