75% — Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%
Leader: Above 4.10% at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 6 contracts · $104 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 11:21:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 75% probability that the 2-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.00% at month-end June 2026, with progressively lower odds for higher yield thresholds. The 2-year yield reflects market expectations about near-term Federal Reserve policy and short-term inflation dynamics. Current pricing suggests traders believe rates are more likely to stay elevated than fall materially, though the sharp drop-off at higher levels (15% probability above 4.15%) indicates significant uncertainty about sustained upside moves. The key drivers are inflation data, Fed communications, and labor market conditions over the next 16 days. Month-end positioning and Treasury supply dynamics could also influence yield levels as the resolution date approaches.

Key factors:
- Current 2Y yield is tracking relative to the 4.00% threshold; any CPI or employment report before June 30 could shift market expectations directionally
- The contract structure shows 75% confidence in above-4.00% but only 6% confidence in above-4.20%, indicating a consensus narrow trading range rather than broad agreement on direction
- Volume across all contracts is zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect overnight market moves
- Fed speakers, PCE inflation data (if released before month-end), or jobless claims would be the primary catalysts to resolve uncertainty in either direction
- The June 30 month-end settlement eliminates tail-risk scenarios; any major economic surprise must occur within the next two weeks to meaningfully reprice these contracts

Contracts:
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.10%?: Above 4.10% — 75¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 5%)
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.00%?: Above 4.00% — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.05%?: Above 4.05% — 53¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 77%)
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.15%?: Above 4.15% — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20% — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%?: Above 4.25% — 9¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 18%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T11:20:50.675Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ustm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%202Y%20US%20Treasury%20Yield%20for%20month-end%20be%20above%204.25%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev