90% — Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%
Leader: Above 3.60% at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 9 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 11:28:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will close Q2 2026 (ending June 30) above 4.00%. At 97%, traders view this threshold as highly likely, implying near-consensus that long-term rates will not rise further or may decline from current levels. The 30-year yield is sensitive to inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and global demand for safe assets. The final week of June will be decisive, particularly the June 25 PCE inflation report and any Fed signals about rates. Recent trading on related contracts shows traders distinguish sharply between 30-year and 2-year outcomes—betting the 30-year stays moderate while 2-year rates could climb higher—suggesting expectations of a relatively flat or inverted curve shape.

Key factors:
- 30-year yields have typically traded 4.00–4.50% in recent months; market consensus reflects belief this range persists through June 30
- A 97% probability implies only 3% pricing for a spike above 4.00%, requiring a major adverse inflation shock or sudden Fed tightening
- Lower-priced contracts (13¢ on 30Y above 5.10%) show minimal tail-risk buying, suggesting traders see limited upside volatility
- Implied spread between 2-year (52¢ above 4.00%) and 30-year (97% above 4.00%) suggests curve flattening expectations
- PCE inflation report (June 25) and any mid-year Fed commentary are the primary remaining catalysts that could shift positioning before quarter-end

Contracts:
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?: Above 3.60% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.80%?: Above 4.80% — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.10%?: Above 4.10% — 41¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 36%)
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%?: Above 4.40% — 35¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%)
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20% — 21¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 17%)
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.90%?: Above 4.90% — 18¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 5%)
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.30%?: Above 4.30% — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 16%)
- Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%?: Above 4.40% — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 20%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:50.680Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ustyld
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20UST%20Par%20Yield%20Curve%20(30Y)%20for%20Q2%202026%20be%20above%204.00%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev