84% — Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election
Leader: Stacey Plaskett at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 3 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 07:08:36 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently price Stacey Plaskett as a 74% favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election, meaning traders estimate roughly three-in-four odds she will be the next governor. Plaskett, a former U.S. House delegate, holds a commanding lead over the next-closest candidate at 6%. Her advantage likely reflects name recognition, incumbency association, and recent polling or endorsement data, though the race remains contested with multiple viable challengers. The November 2026 general election will resolve this market. Key uncertainties include potential changes in campaign momentum, turnout dynamics, and whether undecided voters in the territory lean toward Plaskett or fragment among alternative candidates. Trading volume on Plaskett's contract ($16 in 24-hour volume) is significantly higher than alternatives, suggesting market participants view her as the decisive favorite but remain active in pricing near-term shifts.

Key factors:
- Plaskett holds a 68-point probability gap over the second-place candidate, indicating market consensus on a substantial but not insurmountable lead
- The four alternative candidates collectively price at roughly 21%, leaving meaningful uncertainty about who prevails if Plaskett loses ground
- Highest trading volume concentrates on Plaskett's contract ($16 24h vol vs. $3–$6 for others), suggesting confidence in her position but active repricing during the campaign
- The general election is scheduled for November 2026, approximately 16 months away, leaving substantial time for campaign dynamics, polling shifts, and endorsements to alter probabilities
- Multi-candidate race structure means Plaskett wins if she receives plurality or majority support, depending on territory election rules, creating different pathways than a two-candidate contest

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election?: Stacey Plaskett — 84¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%)
- Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election?: Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election?: Warren Mosler — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-24T13:20:51.813Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usvigov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20U.S.%20Virgin%20Islands%20gubernatorial%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev