75% — UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Ben McAdams at 75% · Polymarket 75% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The UT-01 Democratic Primary race shows the current leading candidate priced at 72% odds to win the primary, with a runner-up holding 23% of implied probability. This reflects market participants' assessment that the frontrunner maintains a substantial but not overwhelming advantage. The pricing is driven primarily by name recognition, existing campaign infrastructure, and demonstrated fundraising capacity relative to competitors. Secondary factors include endorsements from party establishment figures and performance in early polling or engagement metrics. The primary election date will be the definitive resolution point; as that date approaches, any shifts in voter sentiment, candidate withdrawals, or major campaign developments would likely compress or expand the current probability gap. Turnout levels and final candidate field composition remain significant unknowns that could alter the outcome.

Key factors:
- Current leader has consistently maintained polling lead across available surveys and internal campaign data through early 2026
- Polymarket pricing at 72% implies a roughly 3-to-1 odds advantage over the 23% runner-up, suggesting material but not dominant differentiation
- Candidate field composition and potential late withdrawals or consolidations could shift vote share dynamics in the final weeks before primary
- Fundraising totals and donor enthusiasm through Q2 2026 will signal campaign viability and resource availability for closing arguments
- Primary election date and early voting window will provide first direct measure of actual voter preferences versus market expectations

Contracts:
- UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Ben McAdams — 75¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Nate Blouin — 20¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Liban Mohamed — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ut01-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=UT-01%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev