4% — Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1
Kalshi 4% · 4 contracts · $244 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:42:53 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that Nate Blouin has roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the Democratic primary for Utah's 1st Congressional District. The 32% level reflects significant uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting Blouin faces meaningful competition in the race. Primary election results and candidate fundraising activity typically drive these probabilities up or down, as demonstrated performance and financial resources signal viability to primary voters. The Democratic primary election in Utah will ultimately resolve this market, though early voting patterns, endorsements, and polling data in the months leading up to the primary date would likely shift the probability meaningfully.

Key factors:
- Nate Blouin's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other Democratic primary candidates
- Endorsements from local party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in UT-1
- Early voting or primary results from comparable Utah Democratic primaries showing typical turnout and candidate performance patterns
- Poll data or internal campaign metrics specifically measuring Blouin's support among likely Democratic primary voters
- Demographics and voting history of the UT-1 Democratic primary electorate relative to Blouin's base of support

Contracts:
- Will Liban Mohamed be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Liban Mohamed — 5¢ Kalshi $244 (weight 100%)
- Will Brian King be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Brian King — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Caroline Gleich be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Caroline Gleich — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Luz Escamilla be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Luz Escamilla — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ut1d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nate%20Blouin%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20UT-1
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev