47% — Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02
Kalshi 47% · 4 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:43:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the current market assessment that Blake Moore will win the Republican primary nomination for Utah's 2nd congressional district. Moore faces competition from other potential candidates, with Karianne Lisonbee currently priced at 21 cents as the second most likely nominee. The 47-cent price reflects meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome. Key drivers of the probability include Moore's existing political profile and fundraising capacity relative to competitors, plus the timing and composition of the actual primary field. The nomination will be determined at the Utah Republican Party's convention and/or primary election, which typically occur in the spring of election years. Any candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or changes in candidate participation would materially shift these probabilities. The low trading volume suggests limited market liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads on these contracts.

Key factors:
- Blake Moore's current political position, prior electoral performance, and name recognition compared to Lisonbee and other declared or potential primary challengers
- The specific rules and procedures for Utah's 2nd district Republican nomination process, including convention delegate allocation and any primary thresholds
- Major endorsements or stated opposition from Utah Republican Party leadership, existing elected officials, or significant donor networks
- Whether additional candidates enter the primary race, as new entrants could fragment the vote and shift Moore's nomination probability
- Timing and outcomes of early primary contests or convention votes in neighboring districts that might indicate broader Republican voter sentiment

Contracts:
- Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?: Phil Lyman — 12¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 45%)
- Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?: Celeste Maloy — 84¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 26%)
- Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02?: Karianne Lisonbee — 10¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 20%)
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?: Blake Moore — 83¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/utprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Blake%20Moore%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20UT-02
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev