32% — Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections
Leader: 7 at 32% · Kalshi 32% · 6 contracts · $295 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Democrats will win exactly 6 seats in Virginia House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 2026. The 55% probability shown reflects the highest-priced outcome in this three-way market: Democrats winning exactly 10 seats instead. The current weighting suggests significant uncertainty about Democratic performance in Virginia, with outcomes ranging from 6 to 10+ seats clustered as plausible. Key drivers of the probability include Virginia's overall political lean, which has trended Democratic in statewide races, and the specific partisan composition of Virginia House districts. The primary resolution event is the November 2026 election itself, when actual seat counts will be determined. Until then, shifts in this probability would likely reflect changes in polling, demographic patterns, or campaign activity signaling how many seats Democrats might realistically capture.

Key factors:
- Virginia's statewide electoral lean in recent cycles (2022, 2024) relative to national conditions
- The number of competitive House districts where seat gains or losses are plausible
- How campaign fundraising and candidate recruitment develops in Virginia House races through 2026
- Changes in voter turnout expectations or demographic shifts in key districts
- Polling data on generic ballot preferences for Democratic versus Republican candidates in Virginia

Contracts:
- Will Democrats win exactly 7 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 7 — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 8 — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 6 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win below 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: Below 6 — 8¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 79%)
- Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 9 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win exactly 10 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 10 — 5¢ Kalshi $61 (weight 21%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.650Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vahousedem
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Democrats%20win%20exactly%206%20seats%20in%202026%20Virginia%20House%20of%20Representatives%20elections
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev