9% — Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...
Leader: August 30 at 9% · Polymarket 9% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract tracks whether Valve will add Cobblestone to Counter-Strike 2's competitive map pool by a specified deadline. At 26%, the market signals this outcome is unlikely but possible. Cobblestone was removed from the active pool in 2016 and has remained absent despite occasional community requests for map rotation changes. The probability reflects Valve's historical reluctance to reintroduce removed maps combined with uncertainty about their future pool management decisions. The main drivers of this estimate are: Valve's infrequent map pool updates and their typical preference for map replacements rather than additions to the existing rotation. The contract resolution depends on an official Valve announcement or patch note confirming Cobblestone's inclusion before the deadline date. Community sentiment, competitive viability data, and any announced map pool refresh would be the primary factors affecting this probability going forward.

Key factors:
- Valve has not added Cobblestone to the active pool in approximately 10 years despite maintaining it in other game modes, suggesting structural resistance to reintroduction
- Cobblestone's removal in 2016 was tied to specific competitive balance concerns that have never been officially addressed as resolved
- Recent Counter-Strike map pool updates have involved rotation and replacement rather than net additions to pool size
- Community demand for Cobblestone's return exists but remains a minority position compared to requests for other legacy maps
- The contract's deadline date determines whether this captures a specific window (e.g., by end of 2026) or represents a more indefinite timeframe affecting perceived likelihood

Contracts:
- Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?: August 30 — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?: June 30 — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/valve-add-cobblestone-to-map-pool
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Valve%20add%20Cobblestone%20to%20the%20map%20pool%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev