18% — Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election
Kalshi 18% · 4 contracts · $58 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:37:39 UTC

Why this matters:
This 21% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Kareem Allam wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election scheduled for October. The relatively modest odds suggest Allam faces strong competition, likely including established candidates or those with higher name recognition in the city. The probability could shift based on several factors: campaign momentum and media coverage, changes in public opinion polling, endorsements from influential Vancouver figures, or major local issues that emerge before voting day. The election itself on October 24, 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Until then, movements in this probability will likely track publicly available polling data, campaign developments, and any significant municipal issues affecting voter sentiment.

Key factors:
- Current public opinion polling showing Allam's support levels and name recognition relative to other candidates
- Endorsement patterns from established Vancouver politicians, business leaders, or community organizations
- Campaign spending and media visibility compared to competing mayoral candidates
- Shift in local policy priorities or crises that could significantly impact voter preferences before October 24, 2026
- Turnout projections and demographic changes in Vancouver's voting population

Contracts:
- Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Pete Fry — 19¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 100%)
- Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Kareem Allam — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Ken Sim — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: William Azaroff — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:50.574Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vancouvermayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kareem%20Allam%20win%20the%202026%20Vancouver%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev