28% — Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election
Kalshi 28% · 3 contracts · $24 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that prediction markets assign Kareem Allam approximately a 1-in-4 chance of winning the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election. The estimate reflects a competitive three-way race, with current frontrunner Ken Sim at 39% and Pete Fry at 27%. Allam's position depends on factors including voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration, his ability to consolidate support among candidates challenging the status quo, and turnout patterns in Vancouver's diverse wards. The municipal election itself, scheduled for October 2026, will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Between now and voting day, campaign momentum, debate performance, endorsements, and any emerging local issues could meaningfully shift probabilities among the leading candidates.

Key factors:
- Ken Sim holds the incumbent advantage at 39% implied probability, suggesting markets view him as the favorite despite any dissatisfaction with his administration
- A three-way split between Sim (39%), Fry (27%), and Allam (26%) indicates no dominant consensus outcome, with meaningful uncertainty about vote consolidation
- Allam's probability depends on whether anti-incumbent voters coalesce behind him versus Fry or fragment across other candidates
- The October 2026 municipal election date is the hard resolution point; campaign events and polling data before then will be the primary drivers of probability shifts
- Voter turnout and demographic shifts in specific Vancouver wards could significantly alter the viability of each candidate's path to victory

Contracts:
- Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Pete Fry — 29¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 100%)
- Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Ken Sim — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Kareem Allam — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vancouvermayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kareem%20Allam%20win%20the%202026%20Vancouver%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev