64% — Will Douglas Crockett be the Democratic nominee for VA-09
Kalshi 64% · 7 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:04 UTC

Why this matters:
Douglas Crockett has a 22% probability of winning the Democratic nomination for Virginia's 9th congressional district. This reflects a competitive primary race where multiple candidates are vying for the nomination. The current probability suggests Crockett is a secondary contender rather than the frontrunner, with the nomination outcome heavily dependent on candidate fundraising, grassroots support, and voter preference shifts as the primary election approaches. The Democratic nomination contest in VA-09 will be resolved when the primary election occurs, at which point the party's delegate selection process will determine the nominee. Factors such as campaign organization, name recognition in the district, and endorsements from local Democratic leaders will influence final vote totals. The low trading volume on Crockett-specific contracts indicates limited market confidence or analyst attention to this particular outcome relative to the broader race dynamics.

Key factors:
- Douglas Crockett's 22% probability places him behind multiple other Democratic candidates in the VA-09 primary market
- Combined Democratic nominee probabilities exceed 100%, indicating competitive fragmentation in the primary field
- Trading volume on the Crockett contract remains minimal ($10 in 24h volume), suggesting low conviction or liquidity among prediction market participants
- Adam Murphy, listed as another Democratic nominee candidate, carries identical odds (15%) to Crockett, indicating high uncertainty among candidates
- The Republican side shows Morgan Griffith with 95% probability, suggesting Democrats face a heavily Republican district that may affect nominee selection dynamics

Contracts:
- Will Beth Macy be the Democratic nominee for VA-06?: Beth Macy — 96¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 40%)
- Will Bobby Scott be the Democratic nominee for VA-03?: Bobby Scott — 93¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 30%)
- Will Eugene Vindman be the Democratic nominee for VA-07?: Eugene Vindman — 94¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 28%)
- Will Brandi Hall be the Democratic nominee for VA-09?: Brandi Hall — 3¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 2%)
- Will Doug Ollivant be the Republican nominee for VA-07?: Doug Ollivant — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Philip Harding be the Republican nominee for VA-07?: Philip Harding — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Shannon Taylor be the Democratic nominee for VA-01?: Shannon Taylor — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.678Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vaprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Douglas%20Crockett%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20VA-09
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev