94% — Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd
Leader: At least 800K bpd at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 12:13:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract settles based on Venezuela's official average crude oil production throughout September 2026. At 45%, markets are pricing near-even odds that output reaches or exceeds 900,000 barrels per day for the month. Venezuela's production has fluctuated significantly in recent years due to infrastructure constraints, maintenance cycles, and international sanctions effects. The outcome depends on whether current operational capacity can sustain this threshold, which sits between recent historical lows and periods of higher output. Resolution will occur when September data is reported, typically in early October through official Venezuelan or international energy agency figures.

Key factors:
- Current Venezuelan crude output run-rate relative to 900K bpd baseline—whether recent weeks show production trending above, below, or approaching this level
- Status of major oil facilities and refineries, particularly any unplanned downtime or maintenance that could disrupt daily output during September
- International crude-for-fuel swap arrangements or sanctions relief developments that directly affect Venezuela's production capacity or export capability
- Historical volatility in reported Venezuelan production figures and the reliability of data sources used for contract settlement
- The contract's relationship to lower thresholds (800K bpd at 46¢) and higher tiers (1.0M bpd at 36¢), indicating market uncertainty is concentrated in the 800K–1.0M range

Contracts:
- Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?: At least 800K bpd — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?: At least 900K bpd — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?: At least 1.0M bpd — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?: At least 1.1M bpd — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?: At least 1.2M bpd — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-07T11:20:56.665Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/venezcrude
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Venezuela%E2%80%99s%20average%20daily%20crude%20oil%20production%20for%20September%20be%20at%20least%20900K%20bpd
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev