47% — Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Kalshi 47% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:18:25 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?: María Corina Machado — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:13.083Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/venezdefacto
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Delcy%20Rodr%C3%ADguez%20de%20facto%20hold%20head%20of%20state%20of%20Venezuela%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev