89% — Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Kalshi 89% · 1 contracts · $20 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that Delcy Rodríguez will serve as Venezuela's de facto head of state through the end of 2026. Rodríguez, currently Vice President under Nicolás Maduro, could assume this role if Maduro were removed, incapacitated, or if power dynamics within the regime shift substantially. The 47% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about Venezuelan political stability and succession dynamics. Key drivers include the stability of Maduro's grip on power, international pressure and sanctions, internal regime cohesion, and opposition movement momentum. The primary near-term catalyst is whether opposition forces, particularly María Corina Machado's faction, can gain sufficient traction to challenge regime control, though the currently low probability assigned to Machado's assumption of power (4%) suggests markets view this as unlikely. Broader factors include economic conditions, military loyalty, and potential negotiations or political transitions over the coming months.

Key factors:
- Maduro's control of military and security forces remains intact or erodes significantly
- International sanctions and economic deterioration reach critical thresholds affecting regime stability
- Internal Bolivarian Revolution factions maintain unified control or fracture along power-succession lines
- Opposition coordination and popular mobilization capability relative to security force capacity for repression
- Regional diplomatic intervention or foreign pressure creating negotiated transition scenarios by year-end

Contracts:
- Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez — 89¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:51.256Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/venezdefacto
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Delcy%20Rodr%C3%ADguez%20de%20facto%20hold%20head%20of%20state%20of%20Venezuela%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev