91% — Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026
Leader: Delcy Rodríguez at 91% · Polymarket 91% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents market participants' assessment that Delcy Rodríguez will remain Venezuela's de facto leader through the end of 2026. The 90% level reflects relatively high confidence in continuity of the current political arrangement, though the near-zero trading volume on the leading contract suggests thin liquidity and limited recent repricing. The main factors supporting this level are the apparent consolidation of state control and absence of near-term institutional challenges, while scenarios involving leadership change—either through political succession, international intervention, or internal power shifts—remain priced at roughly 10% combined. Key catalysts that would shift this probability include major changes in military loyalty, international sanctions escalation, or documented health crises affecting the current power structure. The low trading activity indicates markets may be underpricing tail risks or reflecting genuine consensus about short-term stability.

Key factors:
- Delcy Rodríguez currently holds the role of vice president and de facto co-administrator; any formal resignation, succession, or incapacity would directly trigger contract resolution before year-end
- Military and security force loyalty remains the institutional foundation of current control; a demonstrable defection or public split would significantly lower this probability
- International diplomatic recognition and sanctions policy could shift the definition or practical reality of de facto leadership by December 2026
- The contract shows near-zero volume on the leading outcome since inception, suggesting either strong consensus pricing or illiquidity masking market uncertainty
- No scheduled elections, referenda, or formal power-transition dates appear anchored in Venezuelan governance before December 31, 2026

Contracts:
- Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez — 91¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 100%)
- Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?: No Head of State — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.058Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/venezuela-de-facto-leader
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Venezuela%20de%20facto%20leader%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev