59% — Venezuela leader end of 2026
Leader: Nicolás Maduro at 59% · Polymarket 59% · 3 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Nicolás Maduro will remain Venezuela's leader through December 2026. At 65%, traders view Maduro's continuation as more likely than not, but with meaningful uncertainty—a 23% probability assigned to an alternative outcome suggests significant doubt among some participants. The current level reflects Maduro's consolidated control of state institutions and military support, balanced against ongoing economic crisis, international pressure, and periodic opposition challenges. Key drivers include whether opposition movements gain momentum in coming months and how external actors (particularly the U.S. and regional powers) adjust their stance. Resolution depends on Venezuela's political calendar, military loyalty dynamics, and whether any major institutional rupture occurs before year-end. The gap between the leader and runner-up suggests the market views Maduro's position as durable but not certain.

Key factors:
- Maduro controls the military, electoral machinery, and state security apparatus, which has historically proven resilient against internal challenges
- Venezuela's economic conditions—inflation, shortages, and external sanctions—create sustained pressure but have not yet destabilized regime control in 2024-2025
- Opposition fragmentation and international recognition disagreements limit the practical capacity to force a leadership transition
- Military defection or schism represents the primary mechanism that could remove Maduro before December 2026, but no credible signs of such rupture are currently evident
- U.S. and allied policy shifts could influence outcomes if they escalate intervention or shift diplomatic recognition

Contracts:
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro — 59¢ Polymarket $19K (weight 72%)
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez — 28¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 26%)
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?: María Corina Machado — 8¢ Polymarket $622 (weight 2%)

Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/venezuela-leader
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Venezuela%20leader%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev