21% — Will Edmundo González Urrutia be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 Kalshi 21% · 5 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-27 06:33:17 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that Edmundo González Urrutia, Venezuela's opposition leader recognized by many countries, will hold the formal title of head of state by year-end 2026. At 26%, the market reflects significant uncertainty despite his recognition by numerous nations as the legitimate president. The current level reflects Nicolás Maduro's strong institutional control (priced at 62%) and his consolidation of state apparatus, offset against ongoing political pressure and international support for González. Key uncertainties include whether opposition movements can overcome security force loyalty to the incumbent regime, the trajectory of international diplomatic efforts, and potential negotiations that could reshape Venezuela's political landscape. The proximity to December 31, 2026—just eight months away—means limited time for major institutional shifts through conventional means, though political situations can change rapidly. Key factors: - Maduro maintains control of military, security forces, and state institutions as of May 2026, which markets price at higher probability (62%) than González succession - Multiple international actors recognize González as legitimate president, but this hasn't translated to de facto control of Venezuelan territory or government functions - González's probability sits roughly equal to Delcy Rodríguez (26%), suggesting market uncertainty about which opposition or alternative figure might emerge as head of state - The eight-month timeframe requires either negotiated transition, electoral process, or significant institutional collapse—all low-probability events by December 2026 - Market pricing across related contracts shows Maduro most likely at year-end (62%) with remaining probability distributed among multiple alternatives rather than consolidated behind any single challenger Contracts: - Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?: Nicolás Maduro — 67¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 52%) - Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez — 25¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 40%) - Will María Corina Machado be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?: María Corina Machado — 3¢ Kalshi $656 (weight 7%) - Will Edmundo González Urrutia be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?: Edmundo González — 6¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 1%) - Will Jorge Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?: Jorge Rodríguez — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-27T06:20:50.883Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/venezuelaleader Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Edmundo%20Gonz%C3%A1lez%20Urrutia%20be%20the%20head%20of%20state%20of%20Venezuela%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev