97% — Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
Leader: Phil Scott at 97% · Polymarket 97% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:36:14 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Phil Scott holds a 95% market probability to win the Vermont Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting strong expectations that he will secure the nomination. Scott, Vermont's incumbent governor, benefits from substantial name recognition, an established political apparatus, and the structural advantage of incumbency in primary contests. The primary outcome depends heavily on whether credible challengers emerge or consolidate support before voting occurs, and on voter appetite for an incumbent versus alternative candidates. The Vermont Republican primary is scheduled for August 2026, which will be the decisive moment for resolving this market. Until then, movement in these probabilities would likely reflect changes in candidate entry decisions, polling data, endorsements from party establishment figures, or significant shifts in Scott's approval ratings or scandal developments.

Key factors:
- Phil Scott is Vermont's sitting governor with proven ability to win statewide elections in a Democratic-leaning state, giving him structural advantages in name recognition and organization
- No clear, well-funded alternative Republican primary candidate has emerged as of mid-2026 to substantially challenge Scott's nomination
- The August 2026 Vermont Republican primary date is the binding event that will determine the winner and resolve all related market contracts
- Incumbent governors typically dominate their party's primary contests absent major approval collapse or scandal; Scott's current favorability data would be a critical input
- Low market volume on the runner-up contract (John Rodgers at 8 cents) suggests limited conviction in alternative outcomes or candidate differentiation among traders

Contracts:
- Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner: Phil Scott — 97¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 80%)
- Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner: John Rodgers — 3¢ Polymarket $887 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.122Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vermont-governor-republican-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Vermont%20Governor%20Republican%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev