29% — Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: At least 1 at 29% · Kalshi 29% · 5 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 15:25:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether Trump will veto at least 3 bills before January 1, 2027. The 88% probability suggests market participants view this outcome as highly likely given Trump's historical veto record and the legislative landscape. The current Republican congressional majority and Trump's stated policy priorities would influence veto likelihood—a unified government typically faces fewer veto-triggering scenarios, which could lower this probability, while increased legislative opposition or bills conflicting with stated positions would raise it. The key driver of resolution will be actual legislative activity in the second half of 2026, when Congress passes bills requiring presidential action. With 8 months remaining, sufficient time exists for 3+ veto opportunities, though the exact number depends on Congress sending bills Trump opposes and whether he uses the veto power rather than accepting compromise.

Key factors:
- Trump's historical veto rate during his first term (10 vetoes across 4 years) compared to typical presidential patterns
- The current composition of Congress and likelihood of bills that conflict with Trump administration policy priorities
- Legislative activity levels expected from June through December 2026, including appropriations bills and potential contentious legislation
- Whether Trump uses veto power or accepts congressional compromise bills without exercising the veto pen
- The definition of "bills" in the contract and whether pocket vetoes or other executive rejections count toward the threshold

Contracts:
- Will Trump veto at least 1 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 1 — 29¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%)
- Will Trump veto at least 2 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 2 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 3 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Trump veto at least 4 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 4 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Trump veto at least 5 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 5 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T15:20:51.480Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vetocount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20veto%20at%20least%203%20bills%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev