9% — Will Wild Horse Nine win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival Kalshi 9% · 16 contracts · $476 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:13 UTC Why this matters: This represents the market's estimated likelihood that the film 'Wild Horse Nine' will receive the Golden Lion award at the 83rd Venice Film Festival, currently priced at 12%. The probability reflects uncertainty about which film will be selected by the festival jury among all competing entries. The level is driven by the film's profile and critical reception relative to other contenders, as well as Venice's historical selection patterns across different genres and production origins. The outcome will be definitively determined when the festival announces its award winners in September 2026, at which point this contract either resolves to full value or expires worthless. Prior festival selections and the strength of this year's overall competition pool are the primary factors shaping current expectations. Key factors: - Wild Horse Nine's estimated odds (12%) place it outside the top tier of favorites but suggest meaningful recognition in market assessments - Related contracts show other films like Primetime trading at 8% for the same award, indicating distributed expectations across multiple potential winners - The 83rd Venice Film Festival award ceremony occurs in September 2026, providing a fixed resolution date - Zero 24-hour trading volume on this contract indicates minimal recent price movement and limited market activity updating the valuation - Wild Horse Nine trades at 16% for the Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize, suggesting different perceived likelihoods depending on award category Contracts: - Will Martin McDonagh win Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Martin McDonagh — 31¢ Kalshi $328 (weight 69%) - Will Wild Horse Nine win Silver Lion – Grand Jury Prize award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Wild Horse Nine — 18¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 20%) - Will Wild Horse Nine win Special Jury Prize award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Wild Horse Nine — 13¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 11%) - Will Primetime win Special Jury Prize award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Primetime — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Special Jury Prize award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Danny Boyle win Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Danny Boyle — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Werner Herzog win Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Werner Herzog — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Hirozaku Koreeda win Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Hirozaku Koreeda — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T05:20:49.391Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vfilmfestival Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Wild%20Horse%20Nine%20win%20Golden%20Lion%20for%20Best%20Film%20award%20at%20the%2083rd%20Venice%20Festival Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev