94% — Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1900 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 1780 tbtu at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 5 contracts · $100 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 09:30:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Venture Global's fiscal 2026 LNG production volumes will determine its output capacity relative to contracted commitments. Markets currently price a 95% chance the company exceeds 1,780 tbtu but only 22% odds it surpasses 1,900 tbtu, suggesting modest growth expectations. Production levels depend on successful plant ramp-ups, particularly Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass facilities coming online and operating at planned capacity. Operational disruptions—weather, maintenance, technical issues—or accelerated production could shift these probabilities materially. The resolution will occur when Venture Global releases its fiscal 2026 financial results, likely in early 2027, revealing actual throughput volumes against these tiered benchmarks.

Key factors:
- Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass LNG plants' production ramp rates and operational reliability through 2026
- Contract volumes already signed with customers versus available capacity across all Venture Global facilities
- Operational downtime frequency, planned maintenance schedules, and unplanned outages during the fiscal year
- Actual feedstock (natural gas) availability and delivery constraints from upstream suppliers
- Fiscal 2026 year-end reported volumes in Venture Global's official financial statements or investor disclosures

Contracts:
- Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1780 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026?: Above 1780 tbtu — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1820 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026?: Above 1820 tbtu — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1860 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026?: Above 1860 tbtu — 62¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 100%)
- Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1900 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026?: Above 1900 tbtu — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1940 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026?: Above 1940 tbtu — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T09:20:51.626Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vga
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Venture%20Global%2C%20Inc.%20report%20Above%201900%20tbtu%20lng%20volumes%20in%20fiscal%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev