90% — How long will Grand Theft Auto VI
Leader: An Extended Look be?: At least 10 minutes at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 7 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 91% probability that Rockstar Games' upcoming "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" presentation will last at least 10 minutes. The contract pricing shows a steep decline in probability at longer durations: only 30% odds it exceeds 30 minutes and 17% odds it surpasses 60 minutes. This reflects uncertainty about the format and scope of Rockstar's planned reveal event. The primary driver is Rockstar's historical precedent with presentation lengths for major franchise announcements—longer reveals typically accompany substantial gameplay footage or story details, while shorter windows suggest a trailer-focused format. Market participants are essentially calibrating expectations against prior Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption reveal events. Resolution will occur when Rockstar publishes or streams the "Extended Look" event, making the actual duration immediately verifiable and settling all contracts.

Key factors:
- Rockstar's track record with prior GTA and Red Dead franchise presentations, which have ranged from brief trailers to extended gameplay breakdowns
- The stated branding of "Extended Look" suggests positioning beyond a minimal teaser, supporting higher minimum-duration probabilities
- 24-hour trading volume concentrates in the 20-30 minute range ($56-$506), indicating disagreement among active traders about realistic presentation length
- No scheduled date has been publicly confirmed for the event, creating timing uncertainty that indirectly affects duration expectations
- Historical pattern that franchise reveal events under 10 minutes are uncommon for AAA releases of GTA's scale, supporting the 91% floor estimate

Contracts:
- How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least 10 minutes — 90¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least 15 minutes — 72¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 1%)
- How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least 20 minutes — 63¢ Kalshi $178 (weight 7%)
- How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least 30 minutes — 38¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 89%)
- How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least 75 minutes — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least 45 minutes — 3¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 3%)
- How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least 60 minutes — 3¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.843Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/videolength
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20long%20will%20Grand%20Theft%20Auto%20VI
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev