37% — Will Die Linke receive at least 24% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election Kalshi 37% · 11 contracts · $135 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 14:34:08 UTC Why this matters: This prediction asks whether Die Linke will secure at least 24% of the vote in Berlin's 2026 state election. At 42% probability, the market suggests this outcome is somewhat more likely than not, but still carries significant uncertainty. Die Linke's performance depends heavily on voter retention from its traditional base and whether it can maintain relevance amid competition from other left-leaning parties. The SPD's strong implied probability (86%) and the AfD's robust polling floor (81-93% for double-digit thresholds) suggest a fragmented left could help Die Linke consolidate support, but competing coalitions could pull votes away. The key catalyst will be the final election results on September 26, 2026, when actual vote shares will resolve all related contracts. Polling trends in the weeks leading up to that date will provide incremental signals about whether Die Linke maintains, gains, or loses support relative to current expectations. Key factors: - Die Linke received 14.0% in the 2021 Berlin state election, so reaching 24% represents a 10-point gain or roughly 70% vote-share growth - SPD is priced at 86% for 7%+ (very safe), while AfD shows 81-93% confidence for 11-15% thresholds, suggesting a crowded moderate-right makes left consolidation possible - CDU is priced at only 28% for 15%, indicating Berlin's electorate is structurally left-leaning relative to national patterns - No intermediate polling data or major political events between today and September 26, 2026 are specified, making this essentially a snapshot of expectation - The 42% probability implies roughly even odds, suggesting Die Linke's path to 24% is plausible but not the base case Contracts: - Will AfD receive at least 21% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 21% — 14¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 74%) - Will Grüne receive at least 14% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 14% — 75¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 16%) - Will Grüne receive at least 16% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 16% — 39¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 4%) - Will Die Linke receive at least 24% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 24% — 5¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 4%) - Will Die Linke receive at least 22% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 22% — 6¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 3%) - Will SPD receive at least 5% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 5% — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Grüne receive at least 12% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 12% — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Die Linke receive at least 16% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?: At least 16% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T14:20:50.885Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/voteberlin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Die%20Linke%20receive%20at%20least%2024%25%20of%20valid%20second%20votes%20in%20the%202026%20Berlin%20state%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev