36% — Will John Fetterman vote for Todd Blanche
Kalshi 36% · 9 contracts · $626 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 23:09:59 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract estimates the likelihood that Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) votes affirmatively for Todd Blanche in a Senate vote. The 50% probability reflects significant uncertainty about Fetterman's position on this matter. Fetterman's vote would likely depend on the specific context of the Blanche nomination or proposal, his alignment with Democratic leadership on the issue, and his constituent preferences in Pennsylvania. The contract would resolve when a relevant Senate vote occurs, or when Fetterman's position becomes publicly confirmed through official statements or voting records. Related contracts show wide variation in predicted support across Republican senators (ranging from 46% for Rand Paul to 69% for Tommy Tuberville), while Fetterman's contract trades far lower at 3 cents, suggesting market skepticism about Democratic support overall. The resolution depends on whether and when such a vote is scheduled in the Senate.

Key factors:
- Fetterman's previous voting record and public statements on similar nominees or policy areas
- The nature of the Blanche nomination, vote, or proposal and its alignment with Democratic Party positions
- Democratic leadership signaling or whip activity indicating party-line voting expectations
- The timing and scheduling of any Senate vote that would trigger contract resolution
- Fetterman's stated priorities and constituent feedback in Pennsylvania regarding the specific matter at hand

Contracts:
- Will John Cornyn vote for Todd Blanche?: John Cornyn — 57¢ Kalshi $305 (weight 49%)
- Will Susan Collins vote for Todd Blanche?: Susan Collins — 23¢ Kalshi $305 (weight 49%)
- Will Mitch McConnell vote for Todd Blanche?: Mitch McConnell — 26¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 2%)
- Will Thom Tillis vote for Todd Blanche?: Thom Tillis — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Rand Paul vote for Todd Blanche?: Rand Paul — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Todd Blanche?: Lisa Murkowski — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bill Cassidy vote for Todd Blanche?: Bill Cassidy — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will John Fetterman vote for Todd Blanche?: John Fetterman — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T22:20:49.099Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/voteblanche
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20John%20Fetterman%20vote%20for%20Todd%20Blanche
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev