57% — Will Renan Santos receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election Kalshi 57% · 20 contracts · $78 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-08 14:20:06 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 44% chance that Renan Santos, a lesser-known political figure, will capture at least 2% of votes in Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The probability reflects uncertainty around third-party and independent candidate viability in what appears to be a two-candidate race dominated by Lula (whose 48%+ vote share is priced at only 16 cents) and Flávio Bolsonaro (92 cents for 26%+). The outcome depends on whether Santos can build sufficient campaign infrastructure and donor backing to reach the 2% threshold, and whether anti-establishment or alternative voters coalesce around his candidacy rather than other third-party options. The election occurs in October 2026, providing the definitive resolution point. Market participants are pricing in substantial fragmentation beyond the top two candidates, though contracts on Lula and Bolsonaro's vote shares suggest concentrated support among leading contenders. Key factors: - Renan Santos's campaign funding and organizational capacity relative to other third-party candidates as of mid-2026 - Whether anti-Lula or anti-Bolsonaro voters choose Santos specifically versus other alternative candidates to fragment the 2% threshold - Historical Brazilian election data showing typical third-candidate vote share distribution and whether 2% represents above or below recent patterns - Recent polling releases specifically naming Santos and his support levels among eligible voters - Electoral registration deadlines and Santos's formal candidacy status as the election approaches Contracts: - Will Renan Santos receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 3% — 63¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 86%) - Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 39% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 39% — 37¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 14%) - Will Augusto Cury receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 1% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Augusto Cury receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 10% — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Augusto Cury receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 15% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Augusto Cury receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 2% — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Augusto Cury receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 20% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Augusto Cury receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 3% — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-08T13:20:49.638Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "57% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/votebr1 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Renan%20Santos%20receive%20at%20least%202%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in%20the%20first%20round%20of%20the%202026%20Brazilian%20presidential%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev