9% — How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Leader: Above 58 at 9% · Kalshi 9% · 6 contracts · $431 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 09:00:52 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects the current market-implied probability that more than 50 U.S. Senate members will vote in favor of a cryptocurrency market structure bill. At 9%, traders assess passage with substantial skepticism, suggesting meaningful legislative headwinds. The low probability likely reflects partisan divides over crypto regulation, competing legislative priorities, and uncertainty about whether any bill would secure bipartisan support sufficient to reach a simple majority. Upward pressure would come from explicit bipartisan sponsorship or floor scheduling signals. Downward pressure could follow procedural obstacles, competing bills, or statements from key voting blocs signaling opposition. Resolution depends on an actual Senate floor vote occurring on the defined bill.

Key factors:
- Current Senate composition and demonstrated willingness of either party to prioritize crypto market structure legislation above competing priorities
- Existence and status of co-sponsored legislation that meets the KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE definition; absence of a formal bill would make passage impossible
- Statements or voting record signals from swing-vote senators indicating support for or opposition to regulatory frameworks within the bill's scope
- Competing legislative demands and calendar availability in the Senate for floor time allocation
- Status of House passage or committee advancement of related crypto market structure bills that might indicate trajectory toward Senate floor consideration

Contracts:
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 58 — 9¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 11%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 62 — 8¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 12%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 50 — 6¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 55 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 64 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 60 — 4¢ Kalshi $326 (weight 76%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T08:20:51.449Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/voteclarity
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20Senate%20members%20will%20vote%20Yea%20on%20a%20crypto%20market%20structure%20bill%20(as%20defined%20in%20KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev