90% — How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Leader: Above 50 at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 14:38:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This measures the likelihood that a Senate crypto market structure bill will receive at least 56 votes (simple majority plus one). The 4% probability reflects significant skepticism about passage. Crypto-related legislation typically faces partisan division and competing regulatory philosophies; support would require either bipartisan consensus or substantial party-line voting. The main factors pushing probabilities lower include fragmented Senate opinion on crypto oversight and the legislative calendar's competing priorities. Upward pressure would come from narrowed bill language gaining broader appeal or demonstration of urgent market need. Resolution depends on whether such a bill reaches a floor vote and, if scheduled, its actual vote count. Current low volume and stable pricing suggest limited market interest or conviction in near-term legislative movement on this specific proposal.

Key factors:
- Senate Democrats and Republicans have historically divided on crypto regulation scope and enforcement authority, making 56+ votes a high threshold without significant compromise language
- The bill must advance through committee and floor scheduling, which requires leadership prioritization amid competing legislative demands
- Recent crypto market volatility and regulatory clarity needs could shift urgency and support levels among voting members
- Bipartisan working groups on crypto framework have produced varied outcomes; consensus on market structure specifics remains unclear as of May 2026
- A floor vote would directly resolve the contract; absence of scheduled voting within the current session would effectively cap passage probability

Contracts:
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 50 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 55 — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 58 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 60 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 62 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 64 — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 66 — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 68 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T14:20:19.767Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/voteclarity
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20Senate%20members%20will%20vote%20Yea%20on%20a%20crypto%20market%20structure%20bill%20(as%20defined%20in%20KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev