48% — Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Los Angeles County, California Kalshi 48% · 20 contracts · $21K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 18:11:58 UTC Why this matters: This market assesses whether Xavier Becerra will exceed a 72% vote share in Los Angeles County during California's 2026 gubernatorial election. The 34% probability reflects skepticism that any candidate achieves this threshold in a county with nearly 10 million residents and substantial political diversity. Becerra's performance depends on statewide momentum, the competitiveness of the race, and turnout patterns in this heavily Democratic area. Even in strongly Democratic counties, gubernatorial results typically show more variation than supermajority outcomes suggest. The election occurs on November 3, 2026. Movement in this probability will likely track broader statewide polling, primary results if applicable, and demographic shifts in voter registration. Key factors: - Historical vote shares in LA County gubernatorial races—whether any statewide candidate has exceeded 72% there in the past three cycles - Statewide polling and primary results as they emerge, indicating whether Becerra faces a competitive general election or runs unopposed effectively - Turnout composition in LA County relative to state averages, since higher-than-expected Democratic participation could push vote share upward - The final candidate field and whether major alternative candidates fragment opposition or consolidate around a single challenger - Registration trends and demographic changes in LA County from 2022 to 2026 Contracts: - Will James Talarico receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Starr County, Texas?: At least 50% — 82¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 17%) - Will James Talarico receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas?: At least 64% — 22¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%) - Will Katie Hobbs receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Maricopa County, Arizona?: At least 54% — 44¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - Will James Talarico receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas?: At least 54% — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - Will Roy Cooper receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wake County, North Carolina?: At least 62% — 91¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Cobb County, Georgia?: At least 56% — 93¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%) - Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Gwinnett County, Georgia?: At least 58% — 89¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%) - Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Fulton County, Georgia?: At least 72% — 88¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T17:20:52.084Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/votecounty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Xavier%20Becerra%20receive%20at%20least%2072%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in%20the%202026%20gubernatorial%20election%20in%20Los%20Angeles%20County%2C%20California Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev