48% — Will Kurt Alme receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election
Kalshi 48% · 20 contracts · $843 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-10 09:38:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 42% chance that Democratic candidate Kurt Alme will receive at least 35% of the popular vote in Montana's 2026 Senate election. The probability reflects uncertainty about the race's competitiveness and voter turnout patterns in a state that has leaned Republican in recent cycles. Key factors include Montana's recent electoral history, which has favored Republican Senate candidates, and the composition of likely voters in a midterm election year. The outcome will be determined when ballots are counted following the November 2026 general election, though polling aggregates and fundraising reports in the months leading up to November will provide signals about the race's trajectory.

Key factors:
- Montana has voted Republican in four of the last five Senate elections (2012 being the Democratic exception), suggesting structural disadvantage for Democratic candidates
- Midterm elections typically see different turnout patterns than presidential years, which could affect the Democratic vote share relative to general election baselines
- Fundraising and polling data from summer and fall 2026 will indicate whether Alme is competitive enough to approach or exceed the 35% threshold
- The Republican candidate's strength and campaign resources will directly influence how many votes are available for the Democratic candidate to capture
- Historical third-party and independent candidacy patterns in Montana Senate races affect the denominator for calculating vote-share percentages

Contracts:
- Will Kurt Alme receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 40% — 92¢ Kalshi $604 (weight 72%)
- Will Kurt Alme receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 45% — 69¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 12%)
- Will Pete Ricketts receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Nebraska Senate election?: At least 40% — 96¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 6%)
- Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 35% — 4¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 3%)
- Will Kurt Alme receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 35% — 96¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 3%)
- Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 45% — 3¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 3%)
- Will Kurt Alme receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 50% — 37¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%)
- Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 10% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-10T09:20:50.057Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/votegeneral
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kurt%20Alme%20receive%20at%20least%2035%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in%20the%202026%20Montana%20Senate%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev