83% — Will Count Binface Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Leader: At least 5% at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 6 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 04:26:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This measures whether Count Binface Party will exceed 20% of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election. The 79% probability on the 5% threshold (already received) but only 58% on the 20% threshold suggests traders believe the party will clear modest performance targets but face a steeper climb toward plurality-level support. The gap between price levels reflects uncertainty: reaching 15% appears moderately likely at 68%, while topping 20% requires either significant momentum from the party's current position or a fragmented opposing vote. The main resolution driver is the election itself; movements before that date would reflect polling data, candidate positioning, and local campaign activity. Election day will definitively measure actual vote share against these benchmarks.

Key factors:
- Current polling and vote intention surveys in Clacton ward specifically, rather than national averages
- Turnout levels among potential Binface supporters relative to other candidates' bases
- Whether the party can sustain or grow from any previously demonstrated local support in this constituency
- Strength and fragmentation of opposition candidates—whether votes concentrate among rivals or split across multiple contenders
- Date of the by-election announcement and campaign duration, which affects time available for voter persuasion

Contracts:
- Will Count Binface Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 5% — 83¢ Kalshi $242 (weight 6%)
- Will Count Binface Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 10% — 72¢ Kalshi $221 (weight 5%)
- Will Count Binface Party receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 15% — 57¢ Kalshi $603 (weight 15%)
- Will Count Binface Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 20% — 44¢ Kalshi $774 (weight 19%)
- Will Count Binface Party receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 25% — 30¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 26%)
- Will Count Binface Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: At least 30% — 24¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 28%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T04:20:49.070Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/votepercentbinface
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Count%20Binface%20Party%20receive%20at%20least%2020%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in%20the%202026%20Clacton%20by-election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev