51% — Will Tom Steyer receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Kalshi 51% · 14 contracts · $35K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:53:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This market indicates a 41% probability that Tom Steyer will capture between 20% and 24% of votes in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary. Steyer's viability in this specific vote-share band depends on several dynamics: whether he can mobilize his existing donor network and name recognition from previous campaigns, whether other progressive candidates fragment the left-wing vote, and how effectively he campaigns across the state. The primary election scheduled for June 2026 will determine the actual outcome. Key uncertainties include whether Steyer enters the race seriously with significant spending, which other major candidates compete alongside him, and overall primary turnout patterns. His previous 2020 presidential campaign demonstrated he could reach measurable vote totals, but California gubernatorial dynamics differ substantially from national contests.

Key factors:
- Steyer's official entry status and campaign spending commitment level heading into June 2026 primary
- Competitive field composition and whether other wealthy self-funding candidates also compete
- Historical turnout and vote-splitting patterns among progressive voters in California gubernatorial primaries
- Steyer's campaign infrastructure and ground organization compared to competing candidates
- Voter name recognition and favorability trends in California from mid-2026 polling

Contracts:
- Will Ralph Norman receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 56% — 9¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 23%)
- Will Ralph Norman receive at least 53% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 53% — 19¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 14%)
- Will Darline Graham receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 44% — 87¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 13%)
- Will Darline Graham receive at least 53% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 53% — 36¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 11%)
- Will Darline Graham receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 56% — 14¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)
- Will Darline Graham receive at least 47% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 47% — 79¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Will Ralph Norman receive at least 47% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 47% — 59¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Ralph Norman receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 44% — 77¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:51.113Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/voteprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tom%20Steyer%20receive%20between%2020%25%20and%2024%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in%20the%202026%20California%20gubernatorial%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev