44% — Will Tom Steyer receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Kalshi 44% · 4 contracts · $27K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:32 UTC

Why this matters:
This reflects the probability that Tom Steyer will capture between 20% and 24% of votes in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election. Steyer's result depends on primary field composition, voter turnout patterns, and whether other moderate or wealthy self-funding candidates enter the race. Currently, contract data suggests modest confidence in this narrow band outcome, with higher probability assigned to him finishing first outright (36 cents) versus achieving exactly this vote share. The primary election date and final candidate field are the critical uncertainties that will resolve this bet, as late-entry candidates or unexpected withdrawal could significantly shift the vote distribution among remaining candidates.

Key factors:
- Steyer's historical performance in California politics and 2020 presidential primary results provide baseline data for expected voter support
- The total number of candidates competing shapes whether 20-24% represents a top-two finish or mid-field outcome
- Voter turnout composition in the primary will affect whether Steyer's coalition mobilizes at expected rates
- Late candidate entries or withdrawals between now and primary day could materially shift vote share percentages
- Media coverage and campaign spending relative to other candidates will influence whether Steyer reaches or stays within this specific vote band

Contracts:
- Will James Fishback receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?: At least 20% — 13¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 79%)
- Will James Fishback receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?: At least 10% — 61¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 18%)
- Will Brad Lander receive at least 65% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary?: At least 65% — 97¢ Kalshi $371 (weight 1%)
- Will James Fishback receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?: At least 30% — 4¢ Kalshi $314 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.025Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/voteprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tom%20Steyer%20receive%20between%2020%25%20and%2024%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in%20the%202026%20California%20gubernatorial%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev