25% — Will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act
Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market tracks whether the Senate will hold a floor vote on the SAVE America Act by August 8, 2026. The 39% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about the bill's legislative path. The current level suggests traders assess meaningful procedural or political obstacles to a Senate vote, though the measure has not been ruled out. Key drivers include whether the bill advances through committee, whether Senate leadership prioritizes it on the floor schedule, and broader legislative bandwidth competing with other priorities. The most concrete near-term catalyst is the June 13 deadline embedded in one contract; if no vote occurs by then, traders will reassess the likelihood of action before the August cutoff, providing clarity on whether delays indicate procedural gridlock or strategic timing.

Key factors:
- The 14% probability for a vote before June 13 versus 27% before June 27 suggests market participants expect either a vote in that two-week window or significant delays pushing past late June
- Committee advancement status and sponsor count will directly indicate whether the bill has sufficient support to reach the Senate floor
- Senate leadership schedule announcements and floor calendar releases are concrete indicators of whether leadership intends to bring the measure to a vote
- Competing legislative priorities and votes scheduled for May-August 2026 will constrain available floor time
- The contract's August 8 resolution date provides a roughly three-month window from today, limiting the timeframe for action

Contracts:
- Will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 25¢ Kalshi $503 (weight 39%)
- Will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act?: Before Nov 3, 2026 — 22¢ Kalshi $767 (weight 59%)
- Will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act?: Before Aug 8, 2026 — 20¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 2%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.573Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/votesaveamerica
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Senate%20vote%20on%20the%20SAVE%20America%20Act
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev