51% — Will CDU receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election Kalshi 51% · 20 contracts · $17 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 00:26:02 UTC Why this matters: This represents the probability that Germany's CDU party will capture at least 20% of votes in the Saxony-Anhalt state election scheduled for September 2026. The current 42% probability reflects uncertainty about whether the CDU can maintain its traditional base in the state while competing against the rising AfD, which markets currently project at higher vote shares. The CDU's result depends on voter turnout patterns, coalition negotiations between mainstream parties, and whether anti-AfD strategic voting consolidates around the CDU or splinters across multiple parties. The election itself in September 2026 will definitively resolve this contract. Recent polling trends, campaign momentum in Saxony-Anhalt, and shifts in east German political dynamics would all shift this probability meaningfully before voting occurs. Key factors: - Current polling data for Saxony-Anhalt shows AfD projected significantly higher than CDU, suggesting market skepticism about CDU reaching 20% - The related contract pricing CDU at 22%+ shows 55¢ probability, implying roughly 45% chance of CDU falling between 20-22% - AfD contracts across multiple thresholds show high confidence in their dominance (91¢ for 30%+), which inversely constrains CDU's likely vote share - Saxony-Anhalt has shown stronger AfD support than national averages in recent years, pressuring traditional center-right performance in the state - The election resolves definitively in September 2026, making recent polling and regional trend data the primary observable inputs Contracts: - Will CDU receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 20% — 71¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 100%) - Will AfD receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 30% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will AfD receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 35% — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will AfD receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 38% — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will AfD receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 40% — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will AfD receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 42% — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will AfD receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 44% — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will AfD receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 46% — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T00:20:49.910Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/votesaxanh Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20CDU%20receive%20at%20least%2020%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in%20the%202026%20Saxony-Anhalt%20state%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev