6% — Will Ruben Gallego be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party Kalshi 6% · 8 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 23:42:33 UTC Why this matters: This represents traders' current estimate that Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego has a 7% chance of becoming the Democratic party's Vice Presidential nominee. Gallego sits in the middle tier of candidates being priced, behind frontrunners like Wes Moore (5¢) and Gretchen Whitmer (10¢), but ahead of Mark Kelly (4¢). The probability reflects his profile as a military veteran and southwestern representative, though he faces competition from governors and senators with higher name recognition or broader geographic appeal. The 2024 Vice Presidential selection process involved public vetting, and the 2028 race will similarly depend on the presumptive presidential nominee's strategic considerations around geography, demographics, and governing experience. Key uncertainties include which candidate the Democratic nominee ultimately chooses and how campaign dynamics may elevate or diminish Gallego's standing relative to other potential picks. Key factors: - Gallego's current pricing at 7% places him outside the top tier of frontrunners (Moore 5¢, Whitmer 10¢, Buttigieg 8¢), suggesting limited trader confidence despite Arizona's electoral significance - His status as a U.S. Senator and military veteran are concrete qualifications, but governors (Whitmer, Moore) currently command higher probabilities, suggesting executive experience may be valued more heavily - The selection will depend entirely on the Democratic presidential nominee's stated criteria and strategic calculus, which remains unknown as of August 2026 - No scheduled announcement date or selection mechanism exists yet, meaning this probability remains highly speculative until the nominee makes formal vetting or public statements about VP candidates - Trading volume across VP contracts remains relatively low ($152-$4,721 in 24h volume), indicating thin markets and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect deep conviction Contracts: - Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Jon Ossoff — 5¢ Kalshi $933 (weight 64%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 7¢ Kalshi $263 (weight 18%) - Will Wes Moore be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Wes Moore — 5¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 6%) - Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Andy Beshear — 6¢ Kalshi $69 (weight 5%) - Will Gretchen Whitmer be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Gretchen Whitmer — 10¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 3%) - Will Raphael Warnock be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Raphael Warnock — 3¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 2%) - Will Pete Buttigieg be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Pete Buttigieg — 6¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 2%) - Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Mark Kelly — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T23:20:49.597Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vpresnomd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ruben%20Gallego%20be%20the%20nominee%20for%20the%20Vice%20Presidency%20for%20the%20Democratic%20party Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev