5% — Will Ruben Gallego be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party Kalshi 5% · 11 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:36 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chances that Ruben Gallego, currently a U.S. Senator from Arizona, becomes the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee. At 5%, markets suggest this is considered unlikely, though not impossible. The low probability reflects that vice presidential selections typically go to candidates with stronger national profiles, broader geographic appeal, or closer ties to the presumptive presidential nominee. The main factors affecting this probability would be the identity of the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether geographic balance (Arizona representation) or Gallego's specific qualifications appeal to their campaign strategy. The nomination decision will likely be finalized in mid-to-late summer 2028, shortly before the Democratic National Convention. Key developments would include statements from leading presidential contenders about their VP selection criteria and any shifts in Gallego's national prominence or campaign visibility. Key factors: - Gallego's current public profile and media presence compared to other potential Democratic VP candidates as of mid-2026 - Whether the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee values Southwest regional representation or Arizona-specific political assets - Gallego's track record on major legislative priorities and whether these align with likely presidential nominees' policy agendas - The emergence or confirmation of alternative VP candidates with higher name recognition or executive experience - Public endorsements or statements from national Democratic figures regarding Gallego's viability as a running mate Contracts: - Will Pete Buttigieg be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Pete Buttigieg — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 38%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 8¢ Kalshi $451 (weight 17%) - Will Raphael Warnock be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Raphael Warnock — 3¢ Kalshi $438 (weight 17%) - Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Jon Ossoff — 5¢ Kalshi $309 (weight 12%) - Will Wes Moore be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Wes Moore — 4¢ Kalshi $187 (weight 7%) - Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Andy Beshear — 5¢ Kalshi $160 (weight 6%) - Will Elissa Slotkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Elissa Slotkin — 3¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 2%) - Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Gavin Newsom — 5¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 1%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.503Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vpresnomd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ruben%20Gallego%20be%20the%20nominee%20for%20the%20Vice%20Presidency%20for%20the%20Democratic%20party Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev