7% — Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party Kalshi 7% · 7 contracts · $569 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether Donald Trump would accept nomination as Vice President on a Republican ticket in 2026. At 8%, the market reflects very low probability, suggesting traders view this as unlikely given Trump's historical positioning and recent political activity. Trump's current focus appears directed toward the presidency or significant political influence, as evidenced by related contracts showing minimal trading on his own presidential nomination (3¢) and heavy activity around Trump Jr.'s presidential prospects (6¢). The main factors affecting this probability are Trump's stated intentions regarding 2026-2028 political involvement and any explicit statements about his willingness to serve in a vice-presidential role. A significant catalyst would be any official announcement from Trump clarifying his political plans or indicating support for a specific presidential candidate as the 2026 cycle progresses. Market movements would likely follow concrete statements rather than speculation, with the probability rising only if Trump explicitly endorsed or positioned himself for a VP nomination. Key factors: - Trump's current public statements and announcements regarding his own political role in 2026-2028 - Trading volume and prices on related contracts show Trump Jr. presidential prospects (6¢) vastly outweigh Trump Sr. presidential prospects (3¢), suggesting market belief in different power dynamics - Historical precedent: Trump has not previously sought vice-presidential office or held subordinate executive positions - Any official endorsement of a 2026-2028 Republican presidential candidate and Trump's stated relationship to that candidate - The timing of Republican nominee selection processes and when candidates typically clarify their running-mate choices Contracts: - Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump — 4¢ Kalshi $213 (weight 37%) - Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance — 6¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 35%) - Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Erika Kirk — 3¢ Kalshi $156 (weight 27%) - Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Marco Rubio — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Glenn Youngkin — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Sarah Huckabee Sanders — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.411Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vpresnomr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20be%20the%20nominee%20for%20the%20Vice%20Presidency%20for%20the%20Republican%20party Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev