6% — Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party Kalshi 6% · 9 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 11:12:02 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects the estimated likelihood that Donald Trump becomes the Republican party's Vice Presidential nominee in the 2028 election. At 6%, the market sees this as an extremely unlikely outcome, treating it as a long-shot scenario. The low probability reflects conventional political norms: former presidents and current sitting presidents rarely accept vice presidential slots, as the position represents a significant reduction in power and influence. The probability could increase if Trump loses a 2028 presidential bid and subsequently seeks the nomination, or if unprecedented political circumstances create incentives for such an arrangement. The main uncertainty resolves at the 2028 Republican National Convention when the party's presidential nominee formally selects their running mate. Market participants are tracking competing candidates like J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, who command significantly higher probabilities at 7% and 27% respectively. Key factors: - Trump's historical positioning: Former presidents rarely accept VP roles, and Trump would likely pursue the presidency rather than subordinate positions - Current political status: If Trump is the 2028 presidential nominee (most likely scenario based on party dynamics), he would select his own running mate rather than accept the role himself - Market comparison data: Other candidates command 3-27 times higher probabilities, indicating markets see alternative candidates as vastly more plausible choices - Timing of resolution: The Republican National Convention in summer 2028 will definitively resolve this contract based on the nominee's running mate selection - Historical precedent: No former president has sought a vice presidential nomination in modern U.S. political history Contracts: - Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 4¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 88%) - Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Marco Rubio — 27¢ Kalshi $318 (weight 6%) - Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Byron Donalds — 3¢ Kalshi $312 (weight 5%) - Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance — 6¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 1%) - Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Glenn Youngkin — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Katie Britt be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Katie Britt — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Sarah Huckabee Sanders — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T10:20:51.730Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vpresnomr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20be%20the%20nominee%20for%20the%20Vice%20Presidency%20for%20the%20Republican%20party Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev