90% — Will exactly 0 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais
Kalshi 90% · 1 contracts · $520 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:41 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction estimates an 88% chance that no Supreme Court justice will vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, a case expected to reach the Court's docket. The high probability reflects expectations about how the current Court composition aligns with the case's legal merits and the petitioner's arguments. Resolution depends on the Court's final decision and vote breakdown when the opinion is issued. Key factors include the justices' established voting patterns on similar cases, the specific legal questions presented, whether the Court grants certiorari, and any amicus briefs or oral arguments that might shift consensus. The resolution point occurs when the Court publishes its ruling and vote tallies.

Key factors:
- Current Supreme Court composition and each justice's documented positions on the legal issues at stake
- Whether the Supreme Court grants certiorari; if denied, the prediction resolves with 0 votes for petitioner by default
- The specific framing of legal questions presented and how narrowly or broadly justices interpret the case's scope
- Strength and content of petitioner's merits brief compared to respondent's, including any shifts in legal theory between lower courts and Supreme Court
- The actual vote distribution revealed in the Court's published opinion, which may differ from pre-ruling expectations

Contracts:
- Will exactly 6 justices vote for the petitioner in Trump v. Slaughter?: 6 — 90¢ Kalshi $520 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.168Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vrascotusvote
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20exactly%200%20justices%20vote%20for%20the%20petitioner%20in%20Louisiana%20v.%20Callais
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev