83% — Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.9 million gallons Leader: Above 2.8 million gallons at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 8 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: The 81% probability reflects market expectation that Vermont will produce more than 2.9 million gallons of maple syrup in 2027. This threshold sits above Vermont's recent production levels, which have historically ranged between 2.0 and 2.9 million gallons annually. Weather conditions during the 2027 sugaring season—particularly spring temperatures and freeze-thaw cycles critical for sap flow—represent the primary driver of production outcomes. Tree health and tapping rates across Vermont's commercial operations also influence yield potential. The resolution depends on official production data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, typically released in late summer or early fall 2027 following the March-April sugaring season. Market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty remains, with only 43% probability assigned to exceeding 3.1 million gallons, indicating skepticism about reaching record-high production levels. Key factors: - Vermont's actual maple syrup production over the past decade has ranged from approximately 2.0-2.9 million gallons, making 2.9M a near-historical ceiling - Spring 2027 weather patterns—particularly the frequency and intensity of freeze-thaw cycles in March-April—directly determine sap flow rates and syrup yield - Commercial tapping intensity and the number of active producer operations in Vermont for 2027 season affects aggregate output capacity - The USDA NASS will release official Vermont maple syrup production figures in late summer/early fall 2027, providing definitive resolution - Steeply declining probabilities at higher thresholds (66% for 2.9M to 6% for 3.3M) indicate the market views production substantially above 3.0M gallons as unlikely Contracts: - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.8 million gallons?: Above 2.8 million gallons — 83¢ Kalshi $701 (weight 24%) - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.9 million gallons?: Above 2.9 million gallons — 73¢ Kalshi $925 (weight 31%) - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.0 million gallons?: Above 3.0 million gallons — 56¢ Kalshi $899 (weight 30%) - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.1 million gallons?: Above 3.1 million gallons — 43¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.2 million gallons?: Above 3.2 million gallons — 26¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.7 million gallons?: Above 2.7 million gallons — 16¢ Kalshi $451 (weight 15%) - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.3 million gallons?: Above 3.3 million gallons — 10¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.4 million gallons?: Above 3.4 million gallons — 3¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.782Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vtmaple Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Vermont%E2%80%99s%20maple%20syrup%20production%20for%202027%20be%20above%202.9%20million%20gallons Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev