92% — Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,900 units Leader: Above 1,600 units at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 11 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates a 30% chance that Vermont will authorize over 1,900 privately owned housing units via building permits during 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether new construction will accelerate beyond recent historical levels in the state. Housing permit volumes depend primarily on developer confidence, which is shaped by financing availability, labor costs, and local zoning decisions. The second half of 2026 will provide most data to resolve this question, with the final permit count released early 2027 by the Census Bureau. Current market pricing suggests traders view above-1,900 units as a less likely outcome compared to the 1,600–1,800 unit range. Key factors: - Vermont's historical permit authorizations averaged 1,200–1,500 units annually from 2015–2023, making the 1,900+ threshold a roughly 25–30% above-trend outcome - Financing conditions and mortgage rates in H2 2026 will influence whether developers submit new projects; rising rates typically reduce permits while declining rates encourage submissions - The Census Bureau's formal release of 2026 permit data occurs in early 2027 and will definitively settle the contract based on building permits issued, not completed units - Vermont's regional housing demand and state/local zoning policy changes between now and year-end 2026 directly determine developer feasibility and submission likelihood - Market liquidity is concentrated in the 2,000+ unit and 1,600+ unit thresholds, with minimal trading in the 1,800–1,900 band, suggesting less certainty about that specific range Contracts: - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,600 units?: Above 1,600 units — 92¢ Kalshi $660 (weight 25%) - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,700 units?: Above 1,700 units — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,800 units?: Above 1,800 units — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,900 units?: Above 1,900 units — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,000 units?: Above 2,000 units — 55¢ Kalshi $580 (weight 22%) - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,100 units?: Above 2,100 units — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,200 units?: Above 2,200 units — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,300 units?: Above 2,300 units — 28¢ Kalshi $788 (weight 30%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.692Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/vtpermits Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20privately%20owned%20housing%20units%20authorized%20by%20building%20permits%20in%20Vermont%20in%202026%20be%20above%201%2C900%20units Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev