3% — Who will win the WA-4 primary
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 22:29:53 UTC

Why this matters:
The 74% probability indicates that one candidate is favored to win Washington's 4th congressional district primary, with a substantial but not overwhelming lead over alternatives. This level reflects current polling, fundraising, and endorsement dynamics that markets assess as favoring the front-runner. The probability could shift based on candidate debate performance, late-breaking endorsements, or changes in voter sentiment captured by new polling. The primary election itself will resolve this uncertainty definitively. Until then, the position sits well above even odds but leaves meaningful room for challengers, suggesting the race remains competitive despite the leader's current advantage.

Key factors:
- The 74% price reflects a leader with significant but non-dominant support, leaving approximately 26% combined probability for all alternative candidates
- Market volume and price consistency across contracts can indicate confidence level—higher volume generally suggests stronger conviction among traders
- Any significant polling release or endorsement shift in the weeks before the primary could move prices materially in either direction
- Early voting patterns and turnout models, once available, provide empirical data that either reinforce or challenge current market positioning
- The specific primary date determines resolution timing and represents the hard deadline when this uncertainty converts to a known outcome

Contracts:
- Who will win the WA-4 primary?: Wesley Meier — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-06T07:20:51.987Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wa4primary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20WA-4%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev