97% — Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs
Leader: Above 80,000 jobs at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 12 contracts · $38K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 85% probability that Washington state's aerospace manufacturing sector will employ at least 81,000 people on an annual-average basis in 2026. The aerospace industry is a significant employment driver in Washington, concentrated around major contractors and suppliers. Current market pricing suggests traders believe employment will likely stay above this threshold, though the declining probabilities for higher employment levels (77% for 82,000+, 52% for 83,000+) indicate meaningful uncertainty about stronger growth. Key drivers include Boeing's production rates, defense spending trajectories, and supply-chain recovery. The market will resolve when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases 2026 annual employment data, typically in early 2027. Regional economic conditions and potential workforce shifts to other sectors represent sources of downside risk.

Key factors:
- Boeing's commercial aircraft delivery rates and defense contract volumes directly influence Washington aerospace employment levels
- Historical 2025 employment baseline and month-to-month trend data through August 2026 will anchor actual annual average
- Supply-chain capacity constraints and labor availability in the aerospace sector could limit hiring above 81,000 despite demand
- Federal defense spending decisions and multi-year contract awards announced before year-end 2026 signal future production needs
- BLS employment reports released monthly provide early signals; significant deviation from 81,000 range by Q4 2026 would shift resolution odds

Contracts:
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 80,000 jobs?: Above 80,000 jobs — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 82,000 jobs?: Above 82,000 jobs — 95¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 20%)
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs?: Above 81,000 jobs — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 83,000 jobs?: Above 83,000 jobs — 88¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 16%)
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 84,000 jobs?: Above 84,000 jobs — 65¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 11%)
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 85,000 jobs?: Above 85,000 jobs — 27¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 13%)
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 86,000 jobs?: Above 86,000 jobs — 16¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 15%)
- Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 87,000 jobs?: Above 87,000 jobs — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 12%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.615Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/waaeroemp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Washington%E2%80%99s%20annual-average%20employment%20in%20Aerospace%20Product%20and%20Parts%20Manufacturing%20for%202026%20be%20above%2081%2C000%20jobs
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev