37% — Will Suzzanna Tanner advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary
Kalshi 37% · 7 contracts · $751 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 08:49:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' estimate that Suzzanna Tanner will secure enough votes to advance past the primary stage in Washington's 3rd Congressional District during the 2026 election cycle. At 46%, the market suggests roughly even odds she clears this threshold, indicating genuine uncertainty about her viability as a candidate. The primary result itself will be the decisive factor—determined by actual vote counts on election day. Factors influencing the current estimate likely include her name recognition, fundraising capacity relative to other candidates, polling numbers if available, and historical performance of candidates with similar profiles in the district. The low trading volume ($20 in 24 hours) suggests limited market depth, meaning the probability could shift notably with additional participant interest or new information about candidate positioning or endorsements.

Key factors:
- Vote share threshold required to advance and total number of candidates competing in the WA-03 primary
- Campaign fundraising totals and spending relative to competing candidates
- Polling data or internal survey results showing Tanner's support levels among district voters
- Endorsements from established party figures or organizations that signal electoral viability
- Election date (August 2026 primary) and any significant campaign events or debates scheduled before voting

Contracts:
- Will Carmela Conroy advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Carmela Conroy — 95¢ Kalshi $751 (weight 100%)
- Will Andrew Bartleson advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Andrew Bartleson — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kevin Fagan advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Kevin Fagan — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Matthew Hayes advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Matthew Hayes — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Michael McGarr advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Michael McGarr — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bob Hagglund advance in the 2026 WA-08 primary?: Bob Hagglund — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Spencer Meline advance in the 2026 WA-08 primary?: Spencer Meline — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T08:20:49.036Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/waprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Suzzanna%20Tanner%20advance%20in%20the%202026%20WA-03%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev