75% — Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2031 at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 01:23:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Kevin Warsh will step down as Federal Reserve chairman before January 1, 2029—roughly 18 months from now. The low probability (8%) suggests traders view his tenure as relatively secure through this window. The main factors driving this low rate are Warsh's recent appointment and typical chairmanship stability, though it could shift if economic crises occur, political pressure intensifies, or health issues emerge. The primary catalyst would be any major policy conflict with the administration, economic shock requiring dramatic action, or public statements about resignation. Contract pricing shows more confidence in stability through 2028 (4%) than through 2029 (5%), indicating markets assign only modest additional risk over the extra year.

Key factors:
- Kevin Warsh was appointed Fed chairman in 2024 and typically serves full 4-year terms; early exits are uncommon absent external shocks
- The 24-hour trading volume is minimal ($376 on the 2030 contract, $0 on the 2029 contract), indicating low market interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- Economic recessions, inflation surges, or major financial crises could create political pressure for leadership change or voluntary resignation
- Significant policy disagreements with the sitting administration or Congress could trigger departure before term expiration
- Age, health status, or family circumstances of the chairman could prompt unexpected retirement, though no current indicators suggest imminent change

Contracts:
- Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-24T01:20:49.720Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/warshout-26jul
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kevin%20Warsh%20be%20out%20as%20chairman%20of%20the%20Board%20of%20Governors%20of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20System%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202029
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev